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America’s policy toward Taiwan is one of “strategic ambiguity.” But under President JOE BIDEN, there might be a little too much ambiguity.
At a televised town hall Thursday night, CNN’s ANDERSON COOPER asked whether the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense should China attack the contested island nation. “Yes, we have a commitment to do that,” Biden replied, making your author’s ears perk up. But after we reached out to the White House about the remark, an official quickly responded: “The president was not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy.”
“We will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, and we will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo,” the official added.
Fine, Biden didn’t announce a monumental shift in U.S. foreign policy off the cuff. The problem is, this isn’t the first time the president has made a supposed blunder on his posture toward Taiwan.
During an August interview with ABC News’ GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, Biden said the U.S. made a “sacred commitment” to respond if “anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies. … Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with — Taiwan.” After that episode, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily: “Our policy with regard to Taiwan has not changed.”
Then, on Oct. 5, Biden told reporters he’d spoken to Chinese President XI JINPING about Beijing’s military provocations toward the island. “We agree we — we’ll abide by the Taiwan agreement. That’s who we are. And we made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement,” Biden said. However, there is no such thing as a joint U.S.-China agreement on Taiwan; Washington, D.C., has separate understandings with both Beijing and Taipei on the respective relationships.
The next day, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI had to explain away the president’s comments. “[O]ur position as it relates to — you know, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act and our view that we need to uphold that commitment — our commitment under the act — that is what the president reiterated to President Xi last time he talked,” she said during a news briefing.
And, well, now you can factor in Biden’s remarks from Thursday’s town hall to the list of possible Taiwan flubs.
Occam’s razor dictates the gaffe-prone president did it again, thrice using unfortunate shorthand to state America’s nuanced policy toward Taiwan and China. Biden’s past statements and writings indicate he doesn’t believe the U.S. military must automatically come to Taiwan’s defense — he chastised former President GEORGE W. BUSH in 2001 for suggesting as much. If he’s changed his mind on the issue, it would come as a surprise to administration officials familiar with his thinking on Taiwan, based on conversations NatSec Daily has had in recent weeks.
But the errant comments come with a cost, analysts note. “Biden’s gaffes are weakening deterrence,” said BONNIE GLASER, the D.C.-based director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund. “U.S. policy should be clear and consistent, or we are not likely to successfully deter or reassure.”
After we asked how Beijing might be reacting to Biden’s statements, she said: “They are likely seeking to clarify quietly. There is always a tendency in Beijing to make the worst case interpretation, and the lack of mutual trust will make it difficult to credibly walk back.”
Both Biden and Xi plan to speak virtually before the year is out. The hope is that the American president fixes his Taiwan missteps before then.
The Inbox
FINNISH ARMS SALE BATTLE '100 PERCENT OPEN': Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember last month we wrote about lawmakers urging the Biden administration to lobby hard to sell $12 billion in American warplanes to Finland. Two U.S. companies, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, are finalists for one of the largest air armament acquisition deals in Europe’s history, and they’re up against French, British and Swedish competition.
Well, a Finnish official today told NatSec Daily the competition remains “100 percent” open, even as a decision is expected by late November or early December. That’s both good and news for Biden’s team. It’s nice to know the U.S. is out of the competition, but it’s also not nice to know the deal isn’t in the bag.
Analysts also say the French and Swedish governments have put in much more effort to woo their Finnish counterparts than the Americans have, which could potentially put the Biden administration at risk of losing the sale.
NATO SUMMIT WRAPS WITH MORE ANTI-RUSSIA POSTURE: After the two-day NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels today, two things became clear: The alliance collectively wants to spend more on weapons to deter Russia, and squabbles over a growing European desire for self-defense independent of the alliance will continue.
After the first day of meetings, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG announced the defense chiefs agreed to new “capability targets” such as “significant improvements to our air and missile defenses” and “strengthening our conventional capabilities with fifth generation jets.”
And after the last sessions today, the mood among European members was that the U.S. would take the continent more seriously if it had greater firepower. “Part of the lessons from Afghanistan is that we would have had more of a say if we’d had more capabilities,” a senior European official told The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES MARSON and NANCY A. YOUSSEF. “The more Europeans do, the more America will stay at our side.”
Both of those items are bad news for Moscow. Russia isn’t planning an incursion in a European nation any time soon, experts say, but a more capable Europe makes its provocations less threatening.
U.S. CAUTIONS WORKING WITH CHINA ON NEW TECH: Per The Washington Post’s ELLEN NAKASHIMA, U.S. counterintelligence officials are talking to their colleagues at private companies and universities about the risks of working with China on advanced technologies.
Whether it’s in quantum computing, artificial intelligence or biotech, the Americans are warning their counterparts "that the Chinese government has a sweeping national plan to dominate in these fields,” Nakashima reported, and that “Beijing’s strategy includes acquiring data and know-how not just by hacking and other illicit acts but also through legal means such as acquisitions, investments and partnerships that businesses and researchers may not realize pose risks.”
That doesn’t mean these entities should stop working with Chinese organizations, the U.S. officials insist, but it does mean the Americans should be a bit more wary of what they all work on together.
“We think there’s a lot at stake with a lot of these technologies,” said MIKE ORLANDO, acting director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, an arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. “If we lose supremacy in these areas ... we could be eclipsed as an international superpower.”
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we’re featuring Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), the retired Marine captain and current House Armed Services Committee member. When he’s not legislating or winning races, he kicks back with a Johnny Blood Red from Green Bay’s own Titletown Brewing Company. And his favorite place to drink it is also as Green Bay as it gets: “at a tailgate, at Lambeau Field, right before watching Aaron Rodgers own the Bears.” Cheers, Congressman!
#WERUNNATSEC: It's the weekend, so make sure to spend some time out there with your #WeRunNatSec family, and keep us updated on Twitter. Oh, and Alex is running Saturday for Team POLITICO in the James W. Foley Freedom Run 5k to support efforts to bring home American hostages and promote the safety of journalists worldwide.
IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.
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Flashpoints
ISRAEL DECLARES 6 PAL HR GROUPS AS TERRORISTS: Israeli Defense Minister BENNY GANTZ on Friday declared six Palestinian human rights groups as “terrorist organizations,” claiming they were effectively arms of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terror group.
“Those organizations were active under the cover of civil society organizations, but in practice belong and constitute an arm of the [PFLP] leadership, the main activity of which is the liberation of Palestine and destruction of Israel,” Gantz’s office said in a statement.
State Department spokesperson NED PRICE told reporters in a news briefing later Friday that the Israeli government “did not give the U.S. an advance warning” about its announcement. “We will be engaging our Israeli partners for more information regarding the basis for these designations,” he said.
But the accused organizations — including Al-Haq, Addameer Prisoner Support and Human Rights Association, Defense for Children and the Union of Palestinian Women Committees — deny such ties. EDO KONRAD, editor in chief of the Israel-focused +972 magazine, tweeted that today’s announcement is “part of a continual assault on organizations and activists that Israel claims are affiliated with the PFLP.”
Earlier this year, Israeli authorities arrested Spanish citizen JUANA RUIZ, who was detained without charge but suspected of money laundering for the terrorist group. An Israeli official said Jerusalem alerted its European allies ahead of today’s announcement and detailed why the decision was made.
But anger at the designation is already building on Capitol Hill in the U.S. and in Israel. The move is “an act characteristic of totalitarian regimes, with the clear purpose of shutting down these organizations,” the Jerusalem-based human rights groups B’Tselem said in a statement.
Keystrokes
CISA HIRING SPREE: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency plans to roll out its new recruiting system next month, Federal News Network’s JUSTIN DOUBLEDAY reports.
The new process — the Cyber Talent Management System — should provide hiring managers with more wiggle room to keep or attract staff. “One of the system’s major draws is giving hiring managers more flexibility to define both the particulars of a position and set its pay grade, as opposed to classifications laid out in the General Schedule. Salary offers can reach as high as the vice president’s annual pay, $255,800 in 2021,” Doubleday wrote.
“Nothing’s going to be predefined from the beginning,” said ANGELA BAILEY, the Department of Homeland Security’s chief human capital officer. “We have to give people some idea what they’re going to do, and we have to give people some idea what we’re going to pay, but it doesn’t have to be so finite, like the current GS schedule is with the classification system.”
The new regulations will come into force on Nov. 15 and apply to around 150 positions.
The Complex
NATIONAL GUARD COULD HELP UNCLOG SUPPLY CHAIN: In other news from his town hall Thursday night, Biden confirmed he would consider calling upon the National Guard to help straighten out the country’s congested supply chain. “Absolutely. Positively. I will do that,” he told CNN.
Pressed on whether he was actually weighing the possibility of National Guard members driving trucks to help ensure on-time deliveries, the president responded: “The answer is yes, if we can’t move — increase the number of truckers, which we’re in the process of doing.”
The Washington Post’s JEFF STEIN reported Tuesday that White House officials have explored in recent weeks a potential National Guard deployment to address the backlog, writing that “[t]he idea appears unlikely to proceed as of now.” But Biden’s remarks to CNN sounded a bit more definitive.
ARMY TROOPS WEREN’T WARNED ABOUT COVID DISINFORMATION: A survey commissioned by senior U.S. Army leadership in May 2020 showed that roughly 87 percent of the service’s soldiers and civilian employees “had not received any information from their units about adversarial propaganda” being promoted by China and Russia about the coronavirus pandemic, per Foreign Policy’s AMY MACKINNON and JACK DETSCH.
At the time, the top brass “held outsized fears of Chinese and Russian propaganda impacting U.S. military readiness and recruitment during the COVID-19 pandemic,” reported Mackinnon and Detsch, who obtained the poll via a Freedom of Information Act request.
“Although veterans groups, disinformation experts, and service members have for years been warning about foreign adversaries’ efforts to target members of the military,” they wrote, “the findings suggest the Army was slow to counter disinformation that worked to undermine government trust and stymie efforts to stop the virus’s threat.”
On the Hill
DEM PRESSURES ADMIN ON MARSHALL ISLANDS: During a Thursday hearing at the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Rep. KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.) pressured administration officials on what the U.S. owes the Marshall Islands after years of testing nuclear weapons there — leading to a dome of leaking radioactive waste.
Tensions between America and the islands over the historical issue threaten to derail an extension to a compact — which ends in 2023 — allowing the U.S. to test ICBMs from the country and keep tabs on China. The Marshallese government wants the Biden administration to clean up the Runit Dome, which holds 3.1 million cubic feet of radioactive waste.
As reported by the Los Angeles Times’ SUSSANE RUST, MATTHEW MOURY, the Department of Energy’s associate undersecretary for environment, health, safety and security, said that the Marshall Islands “bear full responsibility for maintaining and monitoring Runit Dome.” Porter then asked NIKOLAO PULA, who heads the Office of Insular Affairs for the Interior Department, if he agreed with Moury: “Nope, I don’t,” he said.
Many on the Hill, including Democrats, have told NatSec Daily that Biden’s team is failing to secure a new compact with the island nation — thus potentially an important staging and observation point for the U.S. military.
Two days ago, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said the Compact of Free Association signed in 1986 “has been a cornerstone of the strong relationship between the Marshall Islands and the United States for more than three decades.”
“We reaffirm the importance of our special and historic relationship, which will continue to support security, stability, freedom, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific for years to come. The Administration is prioritizing Compact negotiations with the Freely Associated States, and, through ongoing negotiations with the Marshall Islands, we seek to strengthen our enduring partnership,” he continued in a statement.
Broadsides
SASSE RIPS ADMIN ON AFG EVAC: After CNN’s JENNIFER HANSLER reported Friday that State Department officials told congressional staff they were in touch with 363 U.S. citizens in Afghanistan, Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.) accused the Biden administration of “shamelessly and repeatedly” lying about the number of Americans still residing in the Taliban-controlled country.
“For weeks, their official number was ‘about a hundred’ and it magically never changed — as Americans slowly got out the total number never went down,” the Senate Intelligence Committee member said in a statement, adding: “This slow-motion hostage crisis and the administration’s coverup are disgraceful. Mr. President, bring our people home.”
For reference, Blinken said on Aug. 30, the day before the completion of the U.S. military’s evacuation effort, that State officials believed “there are still a small number of Americans — under 200 and likely closer to 100 — who remain in Afghanistan and want to leave.” But now, per Hansler’s reporting, State is telling Congress that 176 of the more than 300 U.S. citizens in Afghanistan are seeking escape.
At his news briefing today, Price, the State Department spokesperson, said the U.S. government had facilitated the departure of 234 U.S. citizens and 144 lawful permanent residents since Aug. 31, according to the latest tally Thursday night.
As for the Americans remaining in Afghanistan who wish to leave, Price said: “Right now, the number of Americans in that category is approximately 100 to 200. That figure has risen in recent days as more Americans in Afghanistan have decided to depart in light of our successful facilitation of dozens of departures in recent weeks.”
But, he added, “it is true that in recent weeks we have heard from Americans who previously had not made themselves known to us.”
Transitions
— PATRICIA UNDERWOOD is now a policy analyst at the Office of Management and Budget. She most recently was director of risk management at the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
What to Read
— MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, Foreign Affairs: “The Coming Democratic Revival: America’s Opportunity to Lead the Fight Against Authoritarianism”
— DAVID ADESNIK, The Hill: “Syria’s challenge to Tony Blinken’s conscience”
— JANE FERGUSON, The New Yorker: “Who Gets to Escape the Taliban”
Monday Today
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “Press Briefing: Previewing the G20 Rome Summit and COP26 — with RYAN C. BERG, HEATHER A. CONLEY, MATTHEW P. GOODMAN, JOSEPH MAJKUT and J. STEPHEN MORRISON”
— The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: “There is nothing for you here: Finding opportunity in the 21st century — with JOHN R. ALLEN, FIONA HILL and MICHAEL E. O’HANLON”
— The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “Women in Afghanistan: No Hope for Human Rights? — with RINA AMIRI, SAHAR HALAIMZAI, IULIA JOJA, NILOFAR SAKHI and HEELA YOON”
— The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: “Aerospace Nation: General MARK D. KELLY — with DAVID A. DEPTULA”
— The Columbia Climate School, 11 a.m.: “EI LIVE K12: Climate Negotiations — What Are They and What To Expect? — with MELODY BRAUN”
— The Heritage Foundation, 4 p.m.: “A Conversation with Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs EDGARS RINKĒVIČS — with DANIEL KOCHIS”
— The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: “Guns, Guerillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World — with ERIC ARNESEN, GREGG BRAZINSKY, JEAN H. LEE, CHRISTIAN F. OSTERMANN, HAZEL SMITH and BENJAMIN R. YOUNG”
— The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5 p.m.: “Reischauer Memorial Lecture with H. E. KOJI TOMITA, Japanese Ambassador to the United States — with KENT CALDER”
Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.
And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who would never hesitate to defend us militarily.
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Biden has Taiwan to get it right - Politico
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