For the past two weeks or so, several of the metrics health experts use to track the virus’ spread have remained worryingly high but have nonetheless leveled off or even begun to point downward. The “rolling” percentage of COVID tests that come back positive has dropped from about 15% at the beginning of November to 10% as of Monday, and the rate at which new positive cases pop up has slowed as well, to about 100 people per day in that same span.
“It’s far too early to say that this is a trend where things are going down,” Mark Schill, a consultant the city hired to crunch coronavirus data, told council members. “Things are leveling it looks like. Maybe there’s a hint there of positivity, but yet cases are still pretty high.”
The spate of cases recorded in Grand Forks County means potentially grim days ahead, Schill said, because deaths tend to lag a few weeks behind case rates, but there are signs that “community sacrifices” may be working: cell phone location data provided by Google indicates that Grand Forks residents are staying home more and going out less this month. That, combined with the relatively lower positivity rate and case figures, could be cause for hope, according to Schill, but he stressed that they’re only initial signals that community-wide actions might be slowing the virus’ spread.
Staff at Grand Forks Public Health, whose city-level coronavirus gauge on Monday dipped from the highest “severe risk” rating into the slightly better “high risk” one, reached a conclusion similar to Schill’s.
“Overall, I do think and agree with Mark that we are on a downward trend right now that’s showing some positive hope on this,” said Michael Dulitz, an opioid response coordinator who’s been pinch hitting as a COVID data analyst for the city health department. “We just want to be careful to not declare victory too early on this because our case numbers are quite high, still, right now. But it is very reassuring that we’re pointing in the right direction, at least.”
Health experts told the Herald last week that the statewide restrictions imposed by Gov. Doug Burgum and interim North Dakota Health Officer Dirk Wilke could take at least a month to slow the rate at which the virus is spreading through the state.
Grand Forks leaders imposed a citywide mask mandate in late October, but they removed any potential penalties for people who didn’t follow it.
Heftier measures went into effect about 10 days ago: Grand Forks County Health Officer Joel Walz issued a countywide mask mandate that could have meant a hefty fine or jail time for noncompliance. But that order, and several other citywide restrictions on businesses signed by Mayor Brandon Bochenski, were quickly upstaged by Burgum and Wilke’s orders, which were at least as restrictive as Walz and Bochenski’s.
“Despite some of the very temporary good news that we received tonight, and I hope beyond all other hopes that that continues, I think it’s foolish to assume that these very temporary shifts suggest that we have now rounded the corner or flattened the curve at the local level,” council member Bret Weber said Monday. “We’re likely to see the largest spike of all after Thanksgiving if we don’t continue to take mitigating measures, including avoiding gatherings indoors.”
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November 24, 2020 at 09:00AM
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Grand Forks-area COVID-19 metrics begin 'pointing in the right direction' - Grand Forks Herald
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