For the second year in a row, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be picking first in the NFL Draft. Last year, they took Trevor Lawrence first overall in a decision that felt inevitable from the moment they locked in No. 1. This year, however, things aren't as clear-cut.
The 2022 NFL Draft has a lot of "could be great" type players. Kayvon Thibodeaux is physically gifted, Aidan Hutchinson has an impossible work ethic, and Travon Walker is raw but has great upside. If the Jags go offensive line, Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are thought to be the best options.
New head coach Doug Pederson gave some insight into the process of drafting No. 1 Friday during his pre-draft availability with Trent Baalke.
"You better be right," Pederson said, per Jaguars.com. "That person is going to come in and start. That's why you pick him first overall."
While an innocuous comment by itself, this does raise the question what is "right" for a No. 1 pick?
Getting this pick right for Jacksonville hardly has a template. When the Browns took Myles Garrett and Baker Mayfield back to back, they worked in the opposite direction from the Jaguars. You work with what's available in the draft you're drafting first in. So, what would be a success for the Jaguars, and how much pressure are they truly under?
Jaguars offseason thus far
Heading into the 2022 offseason, the Jaguars had a plethora of needs. Wide receiver, defensive line, linebacker, edge rusher, and offensive line were all pain points for Jacksonville last year, and they've been spot-filling so far in free agency. They signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones at wide receiver, Brandon Scherff at offensive line, Evan Engram at tight end, and Darious Williams at cornerback.
All of this to say, the Jaguars have been busy this offseason, and although they know how porous their roster is, whether these signing will pay off will depend on how they're utilized. Kirk and Jones are both receivers whose potential has exceeded their production so far -- although Kirk experienced a minor breakout last year -- whereas Scherff has battled injuries, Engram has been inconsistent, and Williams hasn't been great in coverage.
Even if those picks all pan out, it still leaves question marks at the tackle position and the defensive line. With Lawrence at quarterback, it's paramount to make protecting him a priority.
Jaguars draft needs
The Jaguars, to their credit, have positioned themselves in a good way for this draft. Offensive line isn't the flashy first overall pick, but it makes sense, whereas Edge is generally taken in relatively shallow drafts, as this one is. Interior defensive linemen, frankly, don't go No. 1 overall (three total have gone first and none since 1994), and there aren't any linebackers worth taking that swing on. Therefore, as far as premium positions go, offensive tackle and Edge make sense for them.
How much pressure do the Jaguars have?
Pederson is speaking through a very narrow lens when he says the Jaguars have to get this pick "right." The Jaguars don't have a ton of pressure to get this pick perfect, they just need to build their team properly. They've been addressing needs throughout the offseason, and the No. 1 pick should be a piece of the puzzle, but not the end-all-be-all.
While a tackle would complement the Lawrence pick, a tackle might not be the best player in this draft. The Jaguars need to find the best player in the draft, but that isn't apparent at surface level.
So, to be frank, this is the least pressure a team picking No. 1 overall has had in some time. They aren't looking for a franchise quarterback or a player to build their team around. They're looking for complementary pieces to the team they've already built. That team, in theory, could be better. But it will depend on the progression of their young players -- Lawrence most of all.
Will Baalke get it right?
Trent Baalke is the X-factor in all of this. Baalke doesn't have the best resume in terms of building teams, and since he became interim and eventually full-time GM of the Jaguars he has had struggles. The Urban Meyer experiment was nothing short of catastrophic, and the Jaguars still don't feel like heavy hitters in free agency as a team with their money should. During Friday's press conference Baalke said: "I’m pretty confident this will be the last time that I’ll be making the first pick," per The Associated Press.
Time will tell how true that turns out to be, but he's taken a lot of swings in this free agency that can go either way. The Jaguars may not be looking to be Super Bowl contenders this year. But there has to be some urgency to make progress in Jacksonville this season.
So, who will the Jags pick? At this point, no matter who they select among the four players they're interested in, they have a good chance of being "right."
What could go wrong? With Trent Baalke, anything's possible.
But Pederson sounds sure they'll make the right pick in the end.
“I’m pretty confident this will be the last time that I’ll be making the first pick.”
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April 25, 2022 at 08:27AM
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Doug Pederson says Jaguars "better be right" with No. 1 pick... but what does that actually mean? - Sporting News
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