Deep Dive
By Philip van Doorn
Published: Dec 20, 2019 6:00 am ET
There’s a tendency for one year’s dogs to recover the following year
Shares of American Airlines are down 12% this year, but analysts expect a 31% rally for the stock over the next 12 months.
This has been an excellent year for U.S. stocks — so good, in fact, that among the S&P 500, only 57 have had negative returns. But it may be profitable to look among the losers for bargains.
Mark Hulbert recently pointed to a trend among stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA for one year’s worst performer tends to perform very well the following year. (Of course, he also warned that there have been exceptions to the trend.)
Looking at the year’s 57 losers among the S&P 500 SPX 23 are down 10% or more (including reinvested dividends). Of course, a 10% drop for the best of this group may not seem like terrible performance, as stock prices are volatile. But it looks particularly bad when you consider that the S&P 500 has returned 30% this year through Dec. 18.
Among the 23 stocks, 10 have majority “buy” or equivalent ratings among the Wall Street sell-side analysts polled by FactSet. Here they are:
| Company | Ticker | Total return - 2019 through Dec. 18 | Share 'buy' ratings | Share neutral ratings | Share 'sell' ratings | Closing price - Dec. 17 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Concho Resources Inc. | CXO | -21% | 79% | 18% | 3% | $81.12 | $100.79 | 24% |
| DuPont de Nemours Inc. | DD | -14% | 75% | 25% | 0% | $63.91 | $80.29 | 26% |
| Mosaic Company | MOS | -28% | 65% | 30% | 5% | $18.22 | $25.84 | 42% |
| Nielsen Holdings PLC | NLSN | -11% | 64% | 29% | 7% | $19.88 | $25.21 | 27% |
| Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. | COG | -23% | 63% | 30% | 7% | $16.85 | $21.83 | 30% |
| Cimarex Energy Co. | XEC | -17% | 62% | 38% | 0% | $50.66 | $63.73 | 26% |
| Mylan N.V. | MYL | -31% | 59% | 41% | 0% | $18.81 | $25.73 | 37% |
| Abiomed Inc. | ABMD | -46% | 56% | 44% | 0% | $178.87 | $238.00 | 33% |
| Alliance Data Systems Corp. | ADS | -25% | 53% | 47% | 0% | $110.45 | $126.24 | 14% |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL | -12% | 53% | 33% | 14% | $28.00 | $36.72 | 31% |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||||
You can click the tickers for more about each company.
Based on the 12-month price targets, the analysts expect double-digit gains for the entire group.
If you are interested in any of the stocks on the list, do your own research before investing to determine your own comfort with the company’s strategy and prospects.
Here are other stock lists looking ahead to 2020 or back over 2019 and the past decade:
• Here are Wall Street’s favorite stocks for an oil-sector recovery in 2020
• These are Wall Street’s top dividend stock picks for 2020
• Top stock picks for 2020: The best of the biggest
• Top stock picks for 2020: Making money with midsize firms
• Top stock picks for 2020: Standout small companies
• Here’s how Wall Street’s favorite stock picks turned out in 2019
• These are the 20 best-performing stocks of the past decade, and some of them will surprise you
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2019-12-20 11:00:00Z
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